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The reproduction rate of the population in Bulgaria and its impact on labor supply (2005–2030)

Stanislava Moraliiska-Nikolova, Kremena Borisova-Marinova

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Year of Publication: 2011

Cover Type: Soft

Category: Demography

Edition: First Edition

Pages: 334

Format: 7x10x1.6

Language: Bulgarian

Summary

The proposed study examines future trends in the development of the potential labor force in Bulgaria and changes in its main demographic characteristics. For comparison and to illustrate the range of possible scenarios for labor force development during the forecast period, nine European countries have been selected. The impact of reduced demographic reproduction over the last few decades and changes in economic activity levels on labor supply during the forecast period is examined. An international comparative analysis is made of both the population reproduction regime and the level of economic activity in Bulgaria and the selected European countries during the base period. The countries are ranked and grouped according to the values of the indicators for population reproduction and economic activity levels in 2008. An international comparative analysis of the future development of the labor force in the selected countries for the period up to 2020 has been made. Two scenarios for the development of the labor force in Bulgaria until 2030 have been developed – with unchanged and increasing levels of economic activity.

About The Authors

• Stanislava Moraliiska-Nikolova: Assistant Stanislava Emilova Moraliyska - Nikolova graduated Natural Science and Mathematics School "Prof. Emmanuel Ivanov ", Kyustendil. She has MSc in Informatics received by the Southwestern University "Neophyte Rilski", Blagoevgrad. From 2006 she worked as a senior expert at the Center for Population Studies, BAS, and since 2009 she has been an assistant in "Reproductive processes and structures of the population" at the Institute for Population Studies and Human at the Academy of Sciences and a PhD student in the course "Statistics and Demography". She has participated in national and international projects. Her research interests and publications are in the field of modeling of demographic processes, policies on population and demographic projections.
• Kremena Borisova-Marinova: Kremena Borisova Marinova worked as an associate professor in the section "Economic and historical demography" of the Institute for Population Studies and Human - BAS. She graduated from the University in 1986 and worked as a Research Fellow in Demography at the Laboratory for Population Research at the research sector of the World Economy under the guidance of Professor Nikola Naumov to 1991: then - at the Institute of Demography - BAS. In 2004 she defended a doctoral thesis in the University and in 2007 she was habilitated at the Center for Population Studies - BAS. Kremena Borisova Marinova is the author of more than 25 scientific publications, including participation in 5 monographs. She has participated in a number of Bulgarian and three international research and development projects. The author`s research interests are in the demographic reproduction of the population and workforce, their modeling and forecasting and in particular: models of population reproduction, changes in demographic and socio-economic structures of the economically active population: factors for developing active population, medium and long-term projections of total and active population: policy on economic activity, demographic aspects of economic activity and more. "